According to political scientist and Russia expert Gerhard Mangott, gas cannot be trusted to continue flowing through the German-Russian Nord Stream 1 pipeline. “Russia plays with Europe like a cat with a mouse – it hunts and kills them slowly but relentlessly,” said the professor at the University of Innsbruck. Mandatory gas savings is “exactly what Putin wants”.
After ten days of maintenance on Nord Stream 1, which ended on Thursday, Russia is currently, as before, only supplying part of the agreed gas supply volume. Mangott doubts whether this is actually due to a missing turbine, as Russia claims. After all, the turbine was originally only planned for the autumn and even without the turbine more gas could be supplied than is currently happening.
It seems logical to Mangott that the gas company Gazprom gives a technical justification for this volume reduction: “Otherwise, one would have to admit that supplies are being watered down for political reasons in order to achieve certain effects.” The Russian intent behind this is to fear the EU people scatter and divide them.
Political stability at risk
According to Mangott, the European Commission’s announcement on Wednesday that it wants to force EU countries to save gas in an emergency would support such social and political division in the West: “If people can no longer heat their homes as usual or leave their jobs losses, because the industry no longer gets enough gas, creates a politically dangerous situation.” This could lead to protests in many EU countries and undermine political stability, which is exactly what Russian President Vladimir Putin wants, and the political scientist advises caution with such austerity measures.
Time and again, there is debate over who is more harmed by the sanctions imposed on Russia since February – Russia or the West. For Mangott, it is clear that they are doing more damage to Russia: “Anyone who says that Europe will be hit harder has a political agenda, because objectively that is not the case.” In the medium and long term, the negative consequences for Russia would become more visible.
“Believe this war will last at least many more months”“
However, the expert considers it unlikely that the sanctions can end the war in Ukraine. “In this way, Putin would send a signal to his own people that he eventually bowed to the West, gave in and lost. The many costs that the war has already brought to Russia would then have been in vain. Politically, he cannot afford that,” said Mangott. The expert is therefore of the opinion that further sanctions packages cannot change Putin’s mind on this point. At the same time, a negotiated solution is currently not in sight. “I believe that this war will go on for at least many more months,” Mangott estimates. In the winter there could possibly be a lull in the fighting and a sort of lull before it resumes in the spring.
On Wednesday’s threat from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that he would also want to seize targets outside the Donbass, Mangott says: “This is partly a response to the Ukrainian announcement that it wants to retake the entire territory and also Crimea. wants to attack.” But Lavrovs is also one to the West. He wanted to say that Russia is determined to win this war – at all costs.
Source: Krone
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
