The European Union is testing its unity amid the horrors of war in Ukraine

Cut off the gas? And coal? And oil? In short, what about the pictures of the 400 civilians killed in Bucha, the “atrocities committed by the Russian aggressors”, in the words of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell? Since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, the European Union has been marking the evolution of the Russian bombing with sanctions packages: from a small group of people close to Putin to the Central Bank’s assets on the first day. Russian or luxury goods.

However, the war in Ukraine is already entering its fifth week, each day with new horrors, millions of Ukrainian refugees, thousands killed and wounded, the destruction of the country and, at the same time, the obvious damage to the Russian economy. For sanctions, as well as for the European economy, which is approaching the peak of a new recession as prices rise and the energy crisis deepens.

But what to do? EU finance ministers will discuss the issue in Luxembourg on Tuesday, and the 27th ambassadors facing the EU will meet in Brussels on Wednesday to try to reach a decision, but at the risk of unity. It was difficult to make such transcendental decisions unanimously, and in the midst of the war, 27 were able to do so. But as the weeks and conflict progress, we must move forward with either sanctions and what sanctions; By shipment of arms; With the emancipation of Russian fossil fuels, the plant is at greater risk of cracking. Perhaps that is why this Monday, Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni and Eurogroup President Pascal Donoche insisted on the need to maintain unity, which remains.

“Our answer is clear: to strengthen our unity and increase our response,” Gentilon said after the Eurogroup meeting. This Monday, hours after pictures of civilians killed in Bucha near Kiev, with their hands tied behind their backs, falling on bicycles as they tried to escape the siege, most EU governments demanded more sanctions. The problem is which one to get. “We are not going to make decisions about the gas embargo now,” Gentiloni acknowledged, “but we will not take it off the table, it will depend on the evolution of the war.”

“More sanctions and more help”

“The European Union will continue to strongly support Ukraine and will continue to work urgently on new sanctions against Russia. “President Putin must end this war immediately and unconditionally,” Josep Borrell said in a statement on Monday. “More sanctions and aid are on the way,” Council of Europe President Charles Michel said on Sunday. And French President Emmanuel Macron said it was time for new and “very clear” sanctions.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called for an emergency European summit to decide on the response and called for an embargo on fossil fuels, a decision already made by Lithuania, the first country to suspend gas imports.

Morawiecki Posted a post on Facebook this week, In which he argued that the incident “should be called genocide, so we will have to respond. All perpetrators of this crime, direct or indirect, must be severely punished in international courts. The EU must cut off all trade relations with Russia as soon as possible. European money should stop coming to the Kremlin. “Putin’s gangster and increasingly totalitarian regime deserves only one thing: sanctions, which will eventually work.”

But there are three obvious countries ahead of Poland: a strong Germany that is heavily dependent on Russian gas; Austria, with the same weakness; And the newly re-elected Victor Orb .n of Hungary. If anything breaks the Russian war in Ukraine, it is an alliance of the largest illiberal exponents of the EU, Warsaw and Budapest. When Morawiecki became the chief Hawk In the EU against Russia, Orban is Putin’s biggest ally in the EU. There is so much going on among the 27 foreign bodies that he celebrated election victory on Sunday night, citing national and international “leftists”, “Brussels bureaucrats”, the “international mass press” and even the president of Ukraine as losers.

The President of Ukraine, who questioned Orban himself two weeks ago at the last European Council, where he made a brief intervention: “You have to decide for yourself who you are with. You are a sovereign state. I have visited Budapest. You have lived through tragic moments. I visited your boarding pass. I saw that memorial. Shoes on the banks of the Danube [en recuerdo al Holocausto nazi]. Listen, Victor, do you know what is happening in Mariupol? If you can, go on board. Look at those shoes. And you will see how mass killings can be repeated in today’s world. That is what Russia is doing today. The same shoes. The same people are in Mariupol. Adults and children. Grandmother and Grandfather. And you doubt the imposition of sanctions? And do you doubt whether to launch a weapon? And do you doubt whether to trade with Russia or not? There is no time for hesitation. Now is the time to decide. We believe in you. We need your support. We believe in your people. ”

Among the sanctions that have not yet been imposed, for fear of a boomerang effect in countries such as Germany or Hungary, are the cessation of purchases of gas and other fossil fuels from Russia. Austrian Finance Minister Magnus Bruner said during a visit to the Eurogroup on Monday that “we need to be cool” about sanctions: “We are shocked by the war crimes. But you need to keep calm when it comes to sanctions. “We, like Germany, are very cautious about the gas embargo because we fear that the consequences for us will be greater than for Russia.”

Indeed, fears of recession, a boomerang effect of sanctions, a rising price scenario, and an energy crisis where public opinion is taking to the streets all have consequences for 27 decision-makers. Nevertheless, both are economic vice. European Commission President Valdis Dombrowski, as well as Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, hastened to dispel the ghosts of the new recession, but acknowledged that the consequences of the war were making it harder for the economy to recover.

“The reason I think we should not conclude that there will be a recession,” Gentiloni said after the Eurogroup, “is that the EU is coming” as a result of strong growth last year, and that makes it very difficult to achieve a negative achievement. Numbers in 2022. The second reason is that it is now very difficult to make estimates. There are some elements that are unclear, one is the hypothetical embargo on Russian gas; How long will the war last; Third is how trust mechanisms develop; And fourth, how global will be this crisis, which is currently partly global. It is difficult to assess the more negative reasons. ”

And what does Germany say? Finance Minister Christian Lindner told the Eurogroup: “The international community, and especially us as Europeans, need to prepare the next package of sanctions. We must increase the pressure on Putin without weakening ourselves. Everything should be on the table. Our goal is to become independent of energy imports from Russia as soon as possible and to distinguish between gas, coal and oil, each of which must be treated differently, as replacement requires different periods. But it should be understandable. All economic relations with Russia must end as soon as possible. “Strict sanctions should be in place, but gas will not change in the short term.”

That is, Germany is closed to gas supplies, but not to Russian oil and coal, with which it has less dependence.

For his part, Belgian Economy Minister Vincent van Petegeg said: “After the atrocities we saw in Ukraine yesterday, I think we need to speed up the process of the fifth package of sanctions, which should have a bigger impact on Russia than on the EU. “. Does this package of sanctions also include Russian oil? “We have to see what the European Commission will offer. But my country Belgium does not oppose such a move.

Spanish Vice President for Economic Affairs Nadia Calvino avoided a direct response to the Russian gas embargo: “Spain’s position was clear: cover any possible shortcomings, impose effective sanctions, which will allow us to achieve the desired goal as soon as possible. “It’s possible to stop Putin’s war at minimal cost and with a negative impact on the European economy and societies.”

In any case, Brussels must prepare for all scenarios. Dombrovsky said the EU sees the consequences for the economy if Russian gas supplies to the EU are cut off, or because the EU decides to impose a sanction, or because Russia itself decides to cut it. We see such scenarios, but there is also a conclusion that it is possible to deal with a similar situation without any problems. ”

According to Dombrovsky, “the European Commission has all the options on the table. More needs to be done to stop this war and to stop this cruelty. The European Commission is already preparing a new package of sanctions and I hope the member states can decide on the next steps. “We have to increase the pressure on Russia and our support for Ukraine.”

Increase the pressure but how? How much? With coal? Oil? Gas? This is what 27 are discussing now.