Russia expert: – ‘Putin ready to sacrifice his own people en masse’

crown.at: In Eastern Russia, minorities are revolting because they are the victims of the war. Is Putin intentionally recruiting ethnic groups from Russia’s Asian republics?
Peter Ruggenthaler: Advertising and propaganda are the same everywhere. But Russia is a multi-ethnic country. Because many ethnic minorities are socially disadvantaged, recruitment there falls on fertile ground. A salary of several thousand euros per month is promised. That’s a huge amount by Moscow standards, but somewhere in the Far East, especially among underprivileged ethnic groups, it’s huge. This explains in large part why recruitment in such social strata is much more successful than in Moscow and other major cities in Russia. The propaganda sells it so that all the peoples of Russia are ready.

When Putin started the war, many soldiers from Russian republics, such as Buryatia in the east, were sent to the front.
In Bucha, Chechens and Buryats were essentially the vanguard sent to do the gruesome work. This is intentional. The Kremlin is doing everything it can to spare Russians and put other peoples of Russia in the front line.

So the minorities are the “cannon fodder” so that they and not ethnic Slavs are killed?
It is a fundamental fact that Putin’s “New Russia” emphasizes the Slavic world. He has created something that goes far beyond Russian patriotism and nationalism and even into a kind of fascism. This has degenerated into a terrible war. Targeting recruits from other races may be consistent with this ideology. But one thing contradicts that.

In reality?
Putin’s ruthlessness and brutality, which isn’t just about Russian nationalism. If necessary, he is also prepared to sacrifice his own people en masse. In the second Chechen war, Grozny, a de facto Russian city, was reduced to rubble with no regard for casualties. So you have to be careful and watch how Russia behaves in the coming weeks.

Some are already calling Russia a fascist state. How do you rate the Putin system?
It has already taken on fascist features and the ideology is fully prepared for that. That has nothing to do with nationalism anymore, certainly not in terms of its broad impact. It is no longer just about supporting the war or the system, the ‘Russian’ is above all.

So the future looks bleak?
We’ll see where it goes. Nowhere do I have more friends than in Russia, where the last hope dies that things will hopefully go in a different direction, which can also happen very soon if Ukraine can really continue to defy Russia militarily, you hear of the first attacks in Crimea. Now you almost have to bet on the military card.

Moscow has suffered heavy losses and needs new troops. In order to declare general mobilization, the “special operation” would also have to be officially called a war. Will Putin risk it?
Even if many expect it from a military-strategic point of view, I do not assume that there will be a general mobilization in the short term. That would be a powder keg, even for Putin himself. He would have done it a long time ago if he’d known it wasn’t a problem. Thus, the war in Ukraine could easily have been decided in advance. But for him it is a big problem. Putin will be aware that when he calls for general mobilization, he will not know which way to go. This was especially expected around the “Victory Day” on 9 May. I said back then, no, he will present himself as the winner and not cause an escalation.

What options does the Russian regime have then?
Russia desperately needs a breather, which they could get if they announce some sort of victory in Donbass. In my opinion, Russia simply cannot stand it militarily in the near future. The first priority is certainly not the success of the war, but the Putin system. That has the highest priority, it is sometimes lost in the reporting.

Is Putin currently firmly in the saddle?
He certainly has nothing to fear in his own country. That’s the last thing you can hope for. I don’t see that, but as a historian you can and should say thank goodness that things can change overnight. But it’s almost impossible for change to come from within.

What role can Western sanctions play in this?
The sanctions work, sometimes devastating. In principle, Russia is already economically on the ground. Look at the standard of living there. These are the famous Potemkin villages being built. Russian state propaganda is very good at that. These are not just empty words, it will be even more dramatic in the autumn and winter in Russia. But they will always fool us a lot.