Indecision is decreasing, but abstinence is increasing with a view to the next election

A week before the May 28 municipal and regional elections, one in five voters in the Basque Country still don’t know who to support, although the indecision rate has dropped slightly, from 21% recorded in March to 18.5% in May. In Navarra, for its part, participation rates are expected to be 10 points higher than expected in Euskadi and there are fewer indecisive voters in the foral area.

The EITB Focus macro poll on voting intent shows that of all doubters in Euskadi, 8% admit to being close to PNV, 3.5% to EH Bildu and 2.6% to PSE-EE. Of the 82% of doubters who are not close to a party, 9% would doubt between EAJ and EH Bildu. Another 6% doubt between EAJ and PSE-EE and 3% for EH Bildu and Elkarrekin Podemos.

The study also shows the evolution of indecisive people in recent months. As the election campaign progresses, the percentage of doubters has fallen. However, in Álava and Donostia, the percentage of people who are not sure who to vote for is growing, and these are the areas where the largest number of voters would continue to vote.

Indecisiveness

On the other hand, abstinence has increased compared to the March forecasts, which pointed to a participation rate similar to the 2019 regional and municipal figures.

Abstinence levels tend to be higher where results are more pronounced, such as in Bizkaia and Bilbao. Guipuzkoa, on the other hand, is the area where the results are closest and has the lowest abstinence rate.

Abstinence

voice transfers

In Álava, Elkarrekin Podemos would lose 5% of its voters in favor of EH Bildu and 5% of its voters confirm that they will abstain in the next election. The PSE-EE is also losing potential voters as 19% of those who voted for them in 2019 say they have not yet made up their mind and 5% confirm they will vote for the PP this time.

In the primaries in Euskadi

In Bizkaia, PNV would attract 8% of PP voters and 9% of people who abstained in 2019 confirmed to vote for them on this occasion. For his part, EH Bildu does not foresee major transfers of voters, neither for nor against, which would explain his stability in the vote compared to the last legislature. Although the undecided progressives could play a role in this aspect. Elkarrekin Podemos and PSE-EE are the two parties with the highest indecisiveness and the least loyalty in Bizkaia (55 and 58% respectively).

In the municipal in Euskadi

It is in Gipuzkoa that the PNV has the highest percentage of indecisive voters (17%), although it could reactivate 1 in 10 abstentions in 2019. Elkarrekin Podemos and PSE-EE have the most indecisive voters in Gipuzkoa, 25 and 33% respectively, 2 and 3 times more than EH Bildu, the party with the least indecisiveness.

In Navarra, UPN could take the majority of voters from broken Navarra Suma, with 54% compared to 17% collected by the PP. Moreover, this gap widened between the March and May survey: from 22 to 37 points. PSN-PSOE would manage to attract 18% of Podemos voters, 13% undecided, 7% Geroa Bai voters and 5% abstentions. For his part, EH Bildu would attract 12% of Podemos electorate and 5% of Geroa Bai voters. The latter seems capable of absorbing 6% of the Podemos voters, but 7% would escape the PSN-PSOE.

in Navarre

Methodology

6,649 people living in the BAC were interviewed in preparation for the special edition of EITB Focus on the municipal and municipal elections on May 28 (1,543 in Álava, 2,483 in Bizkaia and 2,623 in Gipuzkoa). In Navarre, 1,358 people participated.

The fieldwork was conducted from 26 April to 12 May in Euskadi and from 3 to 11 May in Navarre.