Crossroads for Ukraine – What can Kiev do? The next few hours will decide

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems increasingly irritated: the range restrictions for German missiles in Ukraine must not be relaxed or even lifted. In the run-up to the general UN debate in New York, he chose words that amounted to a slap in the face. On Tuesday, Scholz questioned the usefulness of the missile debate.

“It is also clear that our support is always very much focused on what really helps and what is needed,” the ailing SPD leader told reporters. For him, hitting strategically important targets on Russian territory with Western long-range weapons is obviously not part of that. “That does not match my personal position.”

Scholz abandons his previous rule
Up until now, the credo has been “in step with the US and other allies.” When asked, Scholz proclaimed this political maxim: “We will not do that!” Germany has “good reasons” for this. France and Great Britain see it very differently; the issue threatens to tear the West apart.

His full statement in the video:

In the coming hours, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi will have to convince Scholz that nothing else is expected of him in his home country. Long-range missiles are reportedly a key part of his “victory plan,” which he has announced in cryptic terms in recent weeks.

In New York, he will meet with Scholz and US President Joe Biden, who is still hesitating on the issue. Until now, Kiev has only been allowed to aim its weapons at “imminent threats”. The green light from the US is seen by political observers as an eye-opener in this matter. As a reminder, at the beginning of the conflict, Germany only supplied Kiev with helmets – and there were very few of them.

Zelenskyi must convince
“We are in the process of convincing our partners and will continue to do so (…) that Ukraine needs full-fledged outreach,” Zelensky said recently.

The foreign ministers of the G7 countries want to discuss the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine. This was announced by Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, on the sidelines of the general UN debate. It is also clear that Russia is receiving new weapons, including Iranian missiles, although Tehran has repeatedly denied this. There is a growing threat of an imbalance in favor of Vladimir Putin’s forces.

Brussels is against Scholz
Last Thursday, the majority of the EU Parliament also voted in favor of supplying long-range weapons. A resolution called for the use of Western weapons against legitimate military targets in Russia. The current regulations would limit Kiev’s right to self-defense. The population and infrastructure remained exposed to Russian attacks.

The Austrian MPs of the ÖVP, SPÖ and Greens abstained from voting. Only the NEOS were in favor, the FPÖ voted unanimously no.

What can long-range missiles do?
According to military experts, Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia would be strategically extremely important for Kiev. Vital military facilities such as ammunition depots or airfields could be targeted more effectively with the help of Western intelligence services. Deep strikes would force Russian forces to decentralize their camps. One theory is that this would make logistics considerably more difficult and slow down the Russian advance in the medium term.

So why hasn’t this happened yet? In a word: fear. So far, all of Vladimir Putin’s threatened “red lines” have proven to be bluffs, but Washington in particular is wary of a tipping point.

The White House is haunted by the prospect, insiders say, that hardliners in the Kremlin could push for retaliation by striking missile transit points en route to Ukraine. Targets in Poland are mentioned in this connection. A direct conflict must be avoided.

But lower levels of escalation are also cause for concern: What if the release of these long-range weapons increases Russian sabotage attacks in Europe and the US? What if the Kremlin makes nuclear knowledge available to Iran in revenge?

Is the number of dangerous acts of desperation increasing?
Ukraine has recently shown impressively that strikes on Russian soil do not necessarily provoke an escalation with the Kremlin. There are still concerns that Kiev will resort to increasingly drastic measures to force a decision in its favor. The attack on the Russian region of Kursk could have been a foretaste of that.

In recent days, Ukraine has managed to blow up ammunition depots deep behind enemy lines through spectacular drone strikes. An impressive example from the Krasnodar region:

But even if the major Western allies were to open up Russian territory, the problem of numbers remains. The exact availability of missiles is classified. One thing is certain: supplies are limited and Ukraine lacks all types. For Zelensky, the circumstances could hardly be worse. In his home country, he will be measured in the coming hours. That much we know…