Former head of NATO’s Rapid Deployment Headquarters believes Moscow will relaunch its attacks to stifle Kiev’s economy
Reserve Lieutenant General Francisco José Gan Pampols was Director of the General Military Academy, of the Armed Forces Intelligence Center and Head of NATO Rapid Deployment Headquarters. He follows the war in Ukraine day after day, and since the invasion began, he has become the most authoritative voice to explain an invasion that has changed the reality of the West. The expert attributes the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to Kiev’s ability to deceive Russia, as well as to the use of precision weapons combined with highly accurate information from the enemy’s nerve centers.
-What is the situation after the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
-In the East, there has been a very well-planned attack that has taken everyone by surprise. The Ukrainians had launched a diversionary manoeuvre, concentrating troops in the south and launching some attacks that led the Russians to believe they would be attacked on that front. For example, in Kharkov in the east, Russia had poor defenses and very few troops. Ukraine attacked at that time and was able to win without any problems. One thing is enough to understand the importance of this progress. Ukraine has conquered between 2,000 and 3,000 square kilometers in four days, while Russia took two and a half months to get 500 square kilometers.
Was this attack to be expected?
– To begin with, this is a full-fledged Russian defeat. It seems unbelievable that the Russians have fallen into such a simple trap. It’s incredible to see how they haven’t been able to detect all the movements of troops and equipment needed to launch the counteroffensive.
– What can happen from now on?
-There is no doubt that Ukraine will continue to attack as best it can. Russia, for its part, is going to use everything it has. He must stop the counter-offensive and, if he can, use a natural feature, such as a river of sufficient width and depth to form an obstacle that will allow him to organize his defence. It is very likely that it will start with massive bombing of factories, civilian centers, communication hubs, etc… It will target everything that makes ordinary life difficult, industrial production -especially that of weapons-. It will try to further choke the Ukrainian economy. Yesterday they started attacking power plants, leaving several parts of the country without supplies. Most troubling, however, remains the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The head of the Ukrainian General Staff assured a few days ago that Russia is considering the use of this type of weapon. That option is still on the table.
– One of the doubts that arise is to know what will happen when winter arrives.
– The cold affects the maintenance of weapons, material and equipment, especially the most advanced. Both sides will suffer from frostbite and will have problems with food, fuel, etc… The war will be much slower.
– One of the events that seems to have changed the pace of the war is the use of precision weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States
– You have to think not only about precision weapons like Himars, Stingers or Javelins, but also about the quality of the information to know where to attack. The combination has been deadly for Russia because its logistics centers, its command and control centers… The key points, in short, have been reached.
– Just yesterday, the Russian foreign minister offered to return to the negotiating table.
– They delay maneuvers. But Ukraine will not sit down because they think they will win.
– But is the Ukrainian victory possible?
– The Ukrainians have the will to win. His morale is enormous. They fight for their home, for their family, for their country. Moreover, President Zelensky has succeeded in stimulating his population. But the Russian soldiers, albeit with much lower motivation and poorer commands, also learn by doing. Now they have suffered a setback that hurts a lot, but they realize they need more troops on the ground and better use of infantry. Ukraine’s successes will fade as the enemy learns to adapt to the situation. Russia should get better intelligence on Ukraine and also use light reconnaissance elements to monitor the movements of its enemies, defeat the origins of Ukrainian precision fire and prevent the use of anti-tank and light and medium anti-aircraft weapons. The big question that nobody knows how to answer is why Russia is not able to use its aviation and thus achieve air superiority on the ground.
– What do you think the evolution of the competition will be?
Putin is not going to suddenly decide that he can lose this war. If the motivation of the Russian soldiers continues to decline, Ukraine may be able to return to the border, but we must not forget that Russia is a nuclear power. In Donbass, where pro-Russian independent republics have been declared, Ukraine may not want to get bogged down in a war that has been going on for more than eight years. Another situation arises in Crimea, where Ukraine’s special operations forces are active. To the Russian Federation it is just another province, even if it is not recognized internationally, and any attempt to retake it could be a nuclear ‘casus belli’ for Russia.
Source: La Verdad
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