The historian, professor and military analyst believes that maintaining aid to Ukraine is the only way to achieve peace in the area
Michel Goya, born 60 years ago in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, is one of the foremost French experts on the war in Ukraine. This former colonel of the Marine Corps, historian and professor at the War College, is considered one of the great analysts of the new battlefields of the 21st century. A descendant of Gipuzkoan professional cyclist Luis Goya, he believes that the Russian invasion has entered a highly uncertain phase, in which a total mobilization of its troops by Moscow could prove disastrous for Putin. In his opinion, in order to achieve peace, it is necessary to increase aid to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.
– You stated a few weeks ago that there was a ‘private war’ going on in Ukraine. What did he mean by that sentence?
–It is an expression used in the French army in 1953, at the end of the war in Indochina. It describes a way of fighting where, as happens in naval battles, raids and slashes are multiplied. This is what the Ukrainians did through their deep attacks on the enemy. They recaptured the island of Serpents, reached sensitive points in Crimea, multiplied the actions of partisans and, above all, managed to conduct very accurate bombardments with Western artillery systems on Russian logistics.
Q: What do you think will happen after Ukraine’s current success in Kharkov’s counteroffensive?
-The Ukrainians achieved for the first time in this war an advance of the front and the dislocation of the enemy position near the city of Kharkov. They have been able to take advantage of this victory as far as the Russian border in the north and in the Luhansk province in the east. We don’t know at this point where this progress will stop, but it could lead to a general collapse of the enemy, although most likely it will collide with a new Russian defense line. If the Ukrainians are able to rally five or six brigades again to attack another weak point very quickly and they succeed, then it means that they now have the initiative to operate. In the short term, Moscow’s only hope lies in rebuilding the strongest possible defense line. In the medium term, they will have to reconsider the entire invasion of Ukraine.
– Can you think of a hypothetical victory for Ukraine?
– If Ukrainian military superiority is confirmed, the prospect of a victory over Russia is getting closer. However, it is unlikely that Moscow will not respond and activate all its reserves to fight back. But it is difficult to know whether such a reaction can be successful.
What direction could an escalation of the war take?
– A first form of escalation could be the unleashing of attacks on all Ukrainian cities, as is already the case with the bombing of electricity grids and the main centers of power. Their aim is to show that they are not helpless, to try to hinder Kiev’s war effort and, perhaps, to undermine the will of the citizens. One can also imagine that they will try again to kill Volodymyr Zelensky. But what everyone fears is the official declaration of war and the general mobilization of the country’s armed forces, under the guise of an existential threat from NATO.
– It seems that Russia is afflicted with the ‘Afghanistan syndrome’ and does not want to mobilize all its troops in order not to face an internal crisis as the number of recruits increases.
We may be faced with the only war between states that has begun without even being declared as such by the aggressor and without general mobilization of the nation. It’s like a distant operation abroad. In any case, it is a sign that this mobilization would be unpopular and cause political unrest in Russia, especially if accompanied by defeats. In addition, it would be difficult to get it up and running because nothing was planned about that option. It would open a Pandora’s political box with uncertain results.
You talked about the problems of the Russian chain of command and, before the defeat at Kharkov, you wondered whether the generals of the invading army were wrong or lying. What do you think is happening in Moscow?
It is incomprehensible that the Russians did not see the meeting of a mass of 20,000 men, with hundreds of armored vehicles, a few kilometers from the front line. Because they have great intelligence assets, from satellites to deep reconnaissance commands, through drones or just their planes, which dominate the skies. The truth is that the Russian command’s assessment of the situation was completely wrong. And when you experience an unexpected military disaster, there has always been incompetence somewhere.
– Do you think it is time to increase aid to Ukraine or would it become a growing problem regarding Russia and its energy threat to the West?
– The mobilization of the Ukrainian nation and western aid allowed Ukraine to resist and apparently even outsmart the Russian invaders. This is proof that this aid is useful and that there is no other way than to keep it if we want to achieve Ukraine’s victory faster. Yes, a victory will bring peace, even if it is a ‘de facto’ peace, without signing a treaty. Just by stopping the fight. It is clear that the Russian response to increasing Western aid to Kiev has been rather weak, largely because the room for maneuver against the Allies is so small. The strongest move was to use European sympathizers to convince the public that such aid was useless. It is unknown to the Russians whether they will declare war in full, but that will probably only happen if Russian territory is attacked. And we can’t imagine Ukraine invading Russia. He is likely to try to recapture the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics, which would already pose a political problem for Putin. You can try going back to Crimea, a Russian province before Moscow. We don’t know what Russia’s reaction would be if this hypothesis became a reality.
The nuclear escalation is often cited as a Russian response to defeat. Do you think such an answer is possible?
– I cannot imagine Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. The military results would be uncertain, but the diplomatic and perhaps domestic political consequences would be a disastrous blow to Moscow. Would China, which is very sensitive to this issue, continue to support a country that has banned itself from the rest of the nations by breaking the taboo on nuclear weapons? Even when the Soviet Union – and later the Russian Federation – ran into trouble in the past – in Manchuria in 1969, in Afghanistan or even in Chechnya – nuclear weapons were never used, and for good reason. I hope the same happens in this war.
Source: La Verdad
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