The far-right Meloni seems to be winning thanks to the fatigue of a population that can no longer tolerate the ups and downs of politics. However, all the right-wing parties that should govern the coalition are very different from each other. Abstinence will also play a key role in the elections
This Sunday, September 25, Italy will celebrate general elections. All polls indicate that the right will win against mani basse, a curious Italian expression from the horse world that describes that rider who pushes himself so profusely on the others that he doesn’t even have to pull the bridle to cross the line first. of purpose.
Continuing with the horse metaphors, within this coalition the winning horse will be Fratelli d’Italia whose leader, Giorgia Meloni, would far surpass his two allies, Matteo Salvini (Lega) and Silvio Berlusconi (Forza Italia), thus becoming the first woman become those who rule the country.
When Mario Draghi was given the fiducia (trust) in February 2021 that would allow him to form the 67th cabinet of the Italian Republic, all parties turned to the new president, except Fratelli d’Italia. Just seventeen months later, three of his government partners (Movimento 5 Stelle, Lega and Forza Italia) lifted the executive and forced Draghi to resign.
A summer election campaign was followed, marked by the creation of a third center pole in line with Draghi’s policies, by the constant increase in the consensus of Fratelli d’Italia, by a slight recovery of the Movimento 5 Stelle, again thanks to its « star justice,” the income of citizenship, and by a Democratic Party incapable of creating a center-left coalition and in danger of returning to fascism.
Exactly a century after the march to Rome that brought Benito Mussolini and his National Fascist Party to power, that warning might even be suggestive; however it got tiresome as it was repetitive. As early as 1994, after the novice (politically speaking) Berlusconi won the election, the left mobilized against the danger of a return to the fascist regime.
From then on, whenever the right approaches victory, the anti-fascist litany returns undaunted, reducing the progressive election campaign to a fruitless ghost hunt from the past.
It was 2013 when Fratelli d’Italia first ran for election: it didn’t even make it to 2%. In 2018, still improving, it hit a somewhat brilliant 4%. Now it is predicted to be close to 25%. If a quarter of Italians are willing to vote for Giorgia Meloni in a matter of four years, that’s not a sign that Italy has slipped quickly into totalitarianism. Rather, it is due to the fatigue of a section of the population that, indignant at the ups and downs that have led the country since 2018 to rule the country first through the 5 Stelle movement with the Lega, then the 5 Stelle movement with the Democratic Party and finally a Draghi with the support of almost all parties, Fratelli d’Italia sees as the last possible alternative. Many voters must think that there is no choice but to trust the only party that has remained outside the government area in these years.
Nor should a last-minute drag effect be ruled out. That said, despite the fact that Meloni has softened his program a lot, he will necessarily have to satisfy those 4% who have remained faithful to him in difficult times and who are the hard core of the party: the unconditional first hours.
A complicated coexistence
If the polls’ expectations are met, justice will reach the government, but it will not be easy for it to rule. The three parties that make up this coalition couldn’t be more different from each other. It ranges from a liberal interpretation of politics in Forza Italia, with its Europeanism and its international ties to the European People’s Party, to a Eurosceptic Lega, as opposed to continuing to impose sanctions on Putin, through the Atlanticist conservatism of the Catholic undertones of Fratelli d’Italy. In addition, Meloni, who has such a comfortable lead over his allies, could end up being that cyclist who drops out of the group to win alone and ends up isolated from the rest of his team.
international reactions
A few days ago, Lega and Fratelli d’Italia voted against a European Parliament resolution (supported by 81% of MEPs present) according to which Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy. That Orbán governs an illiberal democracy is nothing new, he himself boasts of that. What is surprising is the timing of this vote, almost a warning to the quirky Salvini and Meloni.
On the other hand, Russia has also entered the election campaign with rumors of party funding that have not been confirmed at the time of writing, but point to the Lega, whose support for Putin is known.
Whatever happens on Sunday, Italy will vote in a climate of great distrust of current politicians, which will increase abstention.
This article was published in ‘The conversation’.
Source: La Verdad
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