Dig deeper – Fierce fighting: Russians expect setbacks

The information in Kiev about the fighting in the Donbass – an important coal and steel region – coincides with reports from Russian military bloggers. The small town of Avdiivka, which was shelled, is controlled by Ukraine and is located a few kilometers north of Donetsk. Since the front between Ukrainian troops and Moscow-controlled separatists has been active there since 2014, Ukraine’s positions are well developed. In the nearly nine months since the Russian invasion on February 24, Russian forces have gained little ground. According to the Moscow Defense Ministry, the village of Opytne near Avdiivka has been taken for the last time.

Troops transferred from Kherson to Donetsk
According to estimates by the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), Russia has transferred troops to this sector of the front freed up as a result of the withdrawal from the Kherson region. According to the situation report of the Ukrainian General Staff, another center of gravity of the fighting is the region around the city of Bakhmut. There Ukrainian positions were fired upon with tanks, mortars, tube and rocket artillery. Here, too, the course of the front has been virtually unchanged for months. British secret services expect Russia to also move troops withdrawn from Kherson here for reinforcements.

There was also heavy artillery fire on the Kupyansk front. This important railway hub in the Kharkiv region was recaptured by the Ukrainian army in September’s rapid advance. Since then, however, the Ukrainians have made little progress eastwards.

Anti-missile attack
According to local authorities, Russian troops fired on a village in the Zaporizhia region at night with the S-300 system missiles, which were actually intended for anti-aircraft purposes. A building was destroyed, but no one was injured. To the West, Russia’s practice of using anti-missiles as offensive weapons is an indication that Moscow is running out of missiles. It was also a reason why it was initially suspected that Russia was behind the missile strike in Poland.

According to British military experts, Russian troops are preparing for further setbacks. According to the Ministry of Defense in London, Russian troops, having withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro River, are regrouping and preparing to defend most of the country they control.

Trenches 60 kilometers behind the front
British intelligence also confirmed that new trenches were being dug near the border with the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, and near the Siwerskyi Donets River between the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – krone.at reports . “Some sites are up to 60 kilometers behind the current front line, suggesting that Russian planners are preparing in case of further major Ukrainian breakthroughs,” the London statement said.

The fortification work is intended to “ensure the safety of the people of Crimea,” Sergei Aksyonov, the head of the Moscow administration for the 2014-annexed Ukrainian peninsula, said on Friday. However, the security of Crimea must be ensured “mainly by measures on the territory” of the Kherson region. The Russian withdrawal from parts of the oblast allowed Ukrainian forces to place their weapons closer to Crimea.

Crimea target of attacks
The peninsula has been attacked several times in recent months. In October, for example, the bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia was heavily damaged by a bomb explosion. Moscow attributed the attack to Ukraine. Russia also blamed Ukraine for attacks on the Russian fleet in Sevastopol and several Russian military installations in Crimea. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow considers the peninsula to be Russian territory, which is not recognized internationally. Kiev has announced its intention to retake Crimea.