How likely is a collision with the Earth?

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Two French amateur astronomers have discovered an asteroid about 50 meters in diameter that could come dangerously close to Earth. According to the US space agency, there is a “very slim chance” that the chunk cataloged 2023 DW could hit Earth in February 2046.

Discovered on Feb. 26 by Georges Attard and Alain Maury as part of the MAP asteroid search program at Maury’s private observatory in San Pedro de Atacama, Chile, the cosmic piece takes 271 days to orbit the sun. According to initial calculations, it will likely come within 0.0005 astronomical units of our Earth on February 14, 2046.

Exact trajectory still unclear
According to the European Space Agency, there is a 1:625 chance that the asteroid 2023 DW will hit Earth. Its American counterpart, NASA, estimates the probability of a hit even higher, at 1:560. However, the exact orbit of the asteroid cannot yet be predicted with certainty.

“When new objects are discovered, weeks of data are often needed to remove the uncertainties and adequately predict jobs for years to come. Orbit analysts will continue to monitor asteroid 2023 DW and update forecasts as more data comes in,” NASA tweeted (tweet above).

It is on the risk lists of NASA and ESA
Although the asteroid has been placed on the risk lists of NASA and ESA, the chances of it actually hitting Earth are very small, experts reassure. Astronomers have already identified thousands of near-Earth asteroids and are tracking their trajectories.

Asteroids are considered to be leftovers from the formation of our solar system about 4.6 billion years ago. Most of them orbit the sun far from Earth between the planets Mars and Jupiter, but some can get dangerously close to our home planet.

Source: Krone

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