“Grandpa, a complete idiot?” – This is how Prigozhin’s attacks undermine Putin’s power

In recent days, the head of the private battle group Wagner appeared on social media to have had a real nervous breakdown. His Telegram channel and other accounts are flooded with increasingly outrageous and provocative statements.

Only on Friday did he rant at the Kremlin about an apparently humiliating setback on the Bakhmut battlefield — a Russian brigade had “fled”, the defense lines there “broke apart”, while the Russian General Staff was “playing down the situation, Prigozhin thundered in a video. His soldiers are now threatened with encirclement.

Angry tirades of hatred change the mood
Prigozhin, originally known as “Putin’s cook”, railed against Moscow with angry hate speech – he was simply left behind in the Ukraine and not given enough ammunition, it was said over and over again. Just at the beginning of the week – when Russia celebrated May 9 – the mood should have finally turned: the Wagner boss not only criticized the country’s highest army, but bombarded them with countless invectives.

But he may have also attacked Putin himself: “If he is right, then God bless us all. But what should we, our children, our grandchildren do in the future and how can we win the war if – only theoretically – it turns out that this grandfather is a complete idiot?” he explained to the online service Telegram.

“Grandpa in the Bunker” attributed to Navalny
It was immediately clear to many that he was referring to Putin and could finally have gone too far. After all, ‘Grandpa in the bunker’ is one of the favorite names of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Prigozhin returned soon after, not referring to Putin, he explained – this might just save his skin – the statement could earn him a charge of discredit and many years in camps in Russia.

In the Kremlin, however, people finally seem to have had enough of the spectacle. Sources close to Putin now said that “official security forces” would soon put a stop to Prigozhin “if this continues,” according to an informant.

Kremlin apparently “seriously concerned”
According to the Russian news portal “Medusa”, the top Russian leadership is “seriously concerned” about Prigozhin’s blunt criticism. He is already seen as a “real threat” in the Kremlin, after all, the Wagner boss no longer behaves like “part of the team” and does not act out of “the same interests” as the Kremlin.

According to a leaked document about the war in Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry is already in intensive talks about launching a smear campaign against Prigozhin, the Washington Post reports.

Is Putin’s system being eroded?
And abroad, too, it is increasingly expected that the debate about the military bully can get under way quickly. So does Prigozhin soon expect a poisoned cup of tea or even a window in a high-rise building?

In any case, the Institute for the Study of War think tank tweeted: “If the Kremlin does not respond to Prigozhin’s escalating attacks on Putin, it may further erode the norm in Putin’s system,” it said. The loyal system around the ruler could therefore erode from within.

Will Putin hold out any longer?
“No such thing exists in Putin’s system,” Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian and professor of international studies at Johns Hopkins University, said in a recent Twitter thread. “Putin’s system allows his henchmen to attack each other, but never undermine the vertical line.”

“Prigozhin exceeds this limit. Either Putin reacts and Prigozhin is finished, or – if this does not happen – a signal is issued. A signal that the boss is deadly weakened. And this is a system that does not respect weakness,” Radchenko said.