Researchers convinced: – Stopping gas supply can be managed by EU solidarity

Natural gas imports account for about 38 percent of gas consumption in the EU and about 80 percent of consumption in Austria. Whether Russian gas supplies would be halted because of an EU import embargo, a Russian export embargo or because of a pipeline breakdown – Austria would lose nearly 7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. According to CSH, Austria will have consumed 9.34 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021.

For their analysis, the researchers assumed that Russian gas supplies would stop on June 1, 2022. Two scenarios were compared: In scenario A, the EU manages to act in a coordinated way and to share the extra gas that the EU can purchase in a spirit of solidarity. In scenario B, only Austria would attempt to purchase additional gas.

The EU could together import 55 billion cubic meters of gas
If coordinated, the EU could provide 55 billion cubic meters of additional imports, comprising an additional 10 billion cubic meters via existing pipelines from Norway, Azerbaijan and Algeria and 45 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas, such as from the US or the Gulf States. is the assumption in scenario A. It was assumed that the EU would be able to import a tenth less than is currently planned by the EU via a liquefied natural gas terminal, said CSH director Stefan Thurner on Tuesday at the presentation of the study.

Austria should give up gas storage capacity
If less dependent countries show solidarity with countries that rely heavily on Russian gas — the latter also includes Austria — “we would benefit disproportionately,” Thurner said. However, Austria would have to give up capacity when using the gas storage facilities and would therefore not benefit because it has disproportionately large gas storage capacities.

Austria can save billion cubic meters of gas
In any case, Austria alone would have had a net supply bottleneck of 3.4 billion. cubic meter of gas, that would be 36.6 percent of the current total consumption. With the support of other EU countries, this bottleneck would be only half the size at 17.4 percent. In both scenarios, nearly a billion cubic meters of gas could be saved by replacing gas with oil to generate electricity in power plants. Also for heating, a reduction in room temperature in winter would reduce gas consumption by 0.11 billion cubic meters.

Researcher: Losses smaller than in the first corona wave
All in all, in the more favorable scenario A (EU cooperation), this would mean a 5.2 percent reduction in available natural gas, with the industry losing disproportionately, namely a good tenth of its previous gas supply. That would result in a production decline of 1.9 percent or 1.11 billion euros per month. “These losses are significantly smaller than the economic impact of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, when GDP losses in the second quarter of 2020 were 14 percent compared to the same period last year,” the researchers said.

In scenario B, where each country acts for itself, the effects would be much more severe, leading to a 9.1 percent drop in Austrian gross production. “That corresponds to a loss of about 5.3 billion euros in gross production per month,” says Thurner. That’s why you need to start coordinating gas supply policy now at EU level, said Anton Pichler, who was involved in creating the scenarios. The transition of power plants to other fuels should be prepared already in the summer and incentives should also be given for the switch to less gas-intensive production.