However, the person in charge of economic analysis at BBVA Research places the risk in the coming winter and “the possibility of the Russian gas embargo, which would paralyze a significant part of the industry in many countries”.
Euskaraz irakurri: Rafael Domenech (BBVA): “Ekonomia, I hope baino hobeto eusten ari zaio Ukrainako inbasioari”
rafael domenechat BBVA Research responsible for economic analysis, believes the economy is holding up “somewhat better than expected” from the situation created by the invasion of Ukraine and other factors, but that “we can’t launch the clocks right away” .
Interviewed on the ’12 minutes’ program by Arantza Ruiz, Domenech places the risk in this coming winter. The analyst pays attention to how the US solves its inflation, and what it does with rates; it also emphasizes China’s zero covid policy; but especially in the possible embargo on Russian gas.
“The possibility to Russian gas embargo, which would paralyze a significant part of the industry in many countries; We are particularly concerned about Germany, and there the range of estimates is very, very wide. It is easy to see that in an embargo situation next winter the German economy could contract between 3 and 6%. That’s why we’re talking about a potential risk that we should be concerned about,” he explained.
With regard to the economy of the Basque Country, Domenech points out that “due to some of its strengths, this crisis affects it, because it is an economy strongly focused on export people can now see that with indignation against these countries, but I maintain that this is a risk, because exports are currently the engine of economic recovery. In part, the fact that we are growing above potential growth is due to the good evolution of exports; It’s a risk that never materialized.”
On the other hand, “it’s an economy where the weight of the industrial sector is very important, and that’s a relative strength compared to others, but it also makes it more dependent on the increase in the cost of energy costs“Until the energy transition to renewable economies happens in the coming decades, that’s a risk we’ll face,” he added.
About the interest rates, the head of economic analysis at BBVA Research wanted to send a calm message. “What we know in Europe is that in the coming months we will get out of this territory as atypical as that of negative interest rates,” he said.
“We are expected to return to euro area interest rates of around 1% by the end of next year, but we are talking about a fairly gradual increase, gradual over time; to levels that will remain exceptionally high. low,” he emphasized.
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Source: EITB
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
