EU leaders are seeking to finalize the distribution of leadership of the European institutions today, June 17, 2024

The heads of state and government of the European Union (EU) will meet on Monday Brussels with the aim of reaching agreement on the new dome of the European institutions, an agreement that was expected at the end of this month, but which could happen at this meeting if the conditions are met to ensure that the conservative Ursula von der Leyen will continue to lead the European Commission in exchange for the European Council the former Portuguese Prime Minister assumes Antonio Costasocialist, and that the still Prime Minister of Estonia, the liberal Kaya Kallastake over from Josep Borrell as head of the European diplomacy.

This is an informal leaders’ dinner, so a final decision cannot be formally adopted, but a political agreement can be reached that confirms the distribution of the senior positions if a draft is finalized that respects, among other things, the complex ideological, geographical and gender balances . that are necessary.

To complete this architecture, leaders will also include the agreement in the agreement Presidency of the European Parliamentwhich is expected to be the ‘popular’ Roberta Metsola in the first half of the parliamentary term, although the power to appoint him lies with the plenary session of the European Parliament, which will vote on the candidacy on 16 July in Strasbourg (France).

The remaining names, those of the Presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council, as well as of the High Representative of the EU, their appointment is the prerogative of the Twenty-Seven and requires a qualified majority in the Council for their adoption, which reduces the veto power of ultra-conservative governments such as that of Viktor Orbán, which has already shown its rejection of Von der Leyen’s re-election. Moreover, the leadership of the community administration must be subject to the vote of the European Parliament, probably also during the July plenary meeting if there is a solid agreement by then.

Von der Leyen and Costa, with more options

Von der Leyen has the support of her political family, the European People’s Party (EPP), but the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the Liberals (Renew) have also signaled that they will give her their support to regain control of Parliament. vanquish. although they have set out a ‘red line’ for him not to gradually make agreements with ultraconservative or far-right MEPs, including Identity and Democracy (ID, led by the National Group of the French Marine Le Pen) nor with the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which also includes the Brothers of Italy of Vox and Giorgia Meloni.

There appear to be fewer doubts about the capabilities of Costa, who resigned as Prime Minister of Portugal in November over a corruption scandal that affected his chief of staff but who now has the backing of Portugal’s conservative government to replace Charles Michel as Portugal’s president. the European Council from 1 December. Costa also has a very good relationship with Von der Leyen, Sánchez and Macron.

Now that this division has been reserved by the European Commission for the EPP and by the European Council for the Social Democrats, Kallas’ candidacy as head of European diplomacy is gaining momentum, as it would give the Liberals a third seat in higher positions (‘ Top Jobs’ in the European Union). community jargon) and has a proven profile after establishing itself as a combative voice against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. His appointment will concern other ‘boxes’ of the balance sheet as representative of a small and oriental country that exercises executive power and legislative initiative.

Although it could lead to an agreement in principle, EU heads of state and government still have a meeting on their agenda formal top ready to explain their decisions at the end of this month.