Tool of the Kremlin – After the Death of Prigozhin: Wagner’s Model Lives On

“Despite Prigozhin’s death and the rebranding as Afrika Korps, Wagner’s footprint on the continent is likely to continue to grow,” say analysts at conflict data organization Acled. In the first half of 2024, there were more incidents of political violence by Russian mercenaries in Africa than during Prigozhin’s lifetime.

Since 2014, businessman Prigozhin had effectively built up a private army – the Wagner mercenaries fought not only in Ukraine, but first in Syria, and then mainly on the African continent in the interests of Moscow. In June 2023, Wagner launched an armed uprising against the Kremlin. On August 23, 2023, Prigozhin’s plane carrying him and his closest allies crashed, without survivors.

“Survival kit for the Regime”
Experts on a panel at the US think tank Brookings described Prigozhin’s most lucrative services as a “regime survival kit”: the Russians have deployed paramilitaries to protect presidents or fight insurgents – using whatever means necessary, including massacres, rape or torture of civilians. Acled covered Wagner-related violence in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali, Mozambique and Sudan, as well as border areas in Chad and Mauritania.

Since Prigozhin’s death, control of the new paramilitary structure, called the Afrika Korps, has been split between the Moscow Defense Ministry and the GRU military intelligence service. “The Kremlin still wants to use Wagner as a geopolitical and economic tool. But it’s trying to do it without Prigozhin and the Wagner brand,” says researcher Mark Galeotti. This was successful in Libya, for example, where the new bosses quietly took over the Wagner networks that supported General Khalifa Haftar.

But elsewhere in Africa, Wagner remains supreme: “In practice, the Wagner Group still exists in spirit. The group’s members see themselves as the Wagner Group; “This is a sociological question,” writes Acled analyst Héni Nsaibia.

The Sahelian state of Mali is fighting both separatists and Islamist terrorist groups and has relied on Wagner paramilitaries since late 2021, after neither a French counter-terrorism mission nor UN peacekeepers were able to calm the country. Since then, the mercenaries have been involved in a third of military operations, according to Acled. The organization reports that 60 percent of violent incidents involving Wagner forces in the Sahelian state have targeted civilians.

The number of violent incidents is increasing
“When Prigozhin died, Mali was already in the midst of a military offensive to retake the north of the country,” the ACLED analysts wrote. Since then, cases of violence involving Russian mercenaries have increased by 81 percent. Just a few weeks ago, the Russians suffered their deadliest defeat yet, with as many as 80 mercenaries killed.

The desperately poor Central African Republic was Wagner’s showpiece: the Russians helped the government against the rebels and gained widespread influence. There is even a monument to the Russian mercenaries in Bangui. But in the Central African Republic, there has been a renewed increase in political violence in recent months as the rebels become more active, writes Acled.

The number of civilians killed by the Wagner group this year already dwarfs the total for 2023. While the leadership after Prigozhin was replaced, the country’s networks remained untouched by Moscow — “according to the motto: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” says Wagner expert John Lechner.

Stability at all costs
Until Prigozhin’s death, there were no Wagner troops in Mali’s neighbours Burkina Faso and Niger, despite coup governments that were also friendly to Russia. But earlier this year, about 100 mercenaries from the Afrika Korps moved into both capitals. According to Acled, these are still limited to training and security duties – for example, as bodyguards for Burkinabe junta chief Ibrahim Traoré, who is increasingly fearful of a counter-coup after his army suffered major defeats at the hands of terrorists.

Other African countries could also be interested in the model in the medium term. Researchers worry about states such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the tiny island of São Tomé and Príncipe, which have military agreements with Russia, or about coastal states in West Africa that need help against terrorist groups from the Sahel.

“Wagner’s selling point is that they are carrying out the mandate that African governments are asking of them,” says Wagner expert Lechner. The Russians have a compelling product to offer: stability at any price.