Presidential elections – Romania: concerns on Europe’s eastern flank

Romania faces a decisive decision. The first round of the presidential elections has thrown the country into unrest. The surprisingly strong performance of far-right candidate Călin Georgescu is worrying Western partners, while his opponent Elena Lasconi is trying to mobilize a broad centre-right alliance. A recount of the votes should now make it clear who will participate in the second election on December 8. But it’s more than just a personnel problem.

Strategic importance for NATO and the EU
With the EU’s longest border with Ukraine and its role as a transit country for arms deliveries to Kiev, Romania is an indispensable pillar of NATO’s eastern flank. The NATO missile defense base is located in Deveselu, and the military alliance’s largest air base in Europe will be built in Constana by 2040 – a project worth billions that underlines Romania’s strategic importance. The impetus for the planning was Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Georgescu-Roegen, a critic of NATO’s presence, has repeatedly spoken out against these facilities. His possible electoral successes could destabilize the security architecture in Eastern Europe. “Existing deployment contracts prevent him from closing the missile defense base,” expert Gustav Gressel told “Krone,” “but he could undermine confidence in Romania as a reliable ally by delaying tactics and personnel decisions.”

Endangering unity in the EU
At the same time, Georgescu-Roegen’s pro-Russian positions call into question Bucharest’s previously clear support for Ukraine. Romania is not only a military player, but also an important partner in European solidarity with Kiev. A change of course would have negative consequences for Ukraine and possibly also for its neighbor, the Republic of Moldova, whose pro-European government is already under pressure. There are also concerns that a populist-nationalist Romania could join Hungary and Slovakia in forming a group of states that would strengthen Russia’s influence within the EU and NATO and block reform efforts at the European level.

A polarization of society
Georgescu-Roemen also owes its popularity to the frustration of many Romanians. Support for Ukraine is perceived as non-transparent by parts of the population, while economic concerns and increasing populism on platforms such as TikTok are fueling distrust of established parties. At the same time, Liberal candidate Elena Lasconi is struggling to win over traditional voters in rural areas, especially those skeptical of a woman in the state’s highest office. The upcoming second elections on December 8 will decide not only Romania’s political future, but also stability on Europe’s eastern flank. Tomorrow the country will elect a new parliament. An unreliable Romania could weaken the unity of NATO and the EU – and would be an unexpected triumph for the Kremlin.