The rapid advance of a rebel offensive in northern Syria has catapulted the country back into the headlines from civil war. The center of attention is mainly the city of Aleppo, which is reportedly largely back in the hands of rebels.
Aleppo was previously the scene of heavy fighting in the Syrian civil war before President Bashar al-Assad’s government regained control in 2016.
Will the government launch a counter-offensive next week?
Middle East expert and author Daniel Gerlach assumes that the Syrian government will launch a counter-offensive next week. He told the German news agency: “This will now cost many lives again.”
Allies are weakened
Gerlach believes it is possible that the government will regain the upper hand. Assad’s allies, Iran and Russia, are weakened or do not have the same capabilities as before. Nevertheless, the Syrian government has units capable of conducting urban warfare. The strategy of first retreating and then striking back with experienced units has been seen time and time again in recent years, he says.
According to Islamic scholar Simon Fuchs, the timing of the rebel offensive in Syria was clever. It was clear that neither Iran nor Hezbollah felt like adventure after the setbacks in the conflict with Israel, Fuchs said in an interview with the German Press Agency. At the same time, Russia has shown no willingness to intervene decisively in the fighting.
Tactical reasons
The rapid progress, including the rebel alliance’s extensive capture of Aleppo, also has tactical reasons, said Fuchs, who teaches at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. This includes the use of technically advanced drones by the insurgents. “The Syrian government forces really have nothing to counter this,” the scientist said. The targeted use of suicide bombings by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on certain government troop positions also had an effect.
Source: Krone
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