Can refugees return home from Syria after the fall of Assad?

The situation in Syria remains extremely confusing after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the political scientist from the University of Vienna explains to krone.at.

In some cases the war has even ‘intensified’
“The war in the north is certainly not over – in fact it has intensified,” the Middle East expert said. The long-standing conflict is ultimately fueled by different interests and actors. For example, the HTS leader (“Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham”) al-Golani, who has his roots in Al Qaeda, is sending signals for an inclusive government, but is already calling for a march on Jerusalem in videos from Damascus.

Is political stability even possible at this point?
While many are skeptical about the takeover of Islamist groups such as the HTS, fighting between pro-Turkish forces and Kurdish units is escalating. The regions around Manbij and the north of the country in particular are the focus of serious conflict. “It is difficult to imagine that one group can assert itself in such a diverse country,” Schmidinger continued.

A peaceful future would only be possible with compromise solutions, which in turn would likely require a federal system.

Not a safe place: returning remains risky
While videos are already circulating on social media showing refugees returning to Syria, Schmidinger warns against hasty decisions. “I was just in Kobane in the Kurdish areas of Syria three weeks ago, but I would think twice about it now,” said the expert.

Only in a positive scenario can well-trained Syrians play an important role in reconstruction. “I would advise everyone to first wait and see how the situation develops in the coming weeks.” It is ‘naive’ to assume that Syria will develop into a moderate and stable system in a short time.

Afghanistan as a cautionary example?
Developments in Syria could reveal an even darker scenario than in Afghanistan after the Taliban came to power. Unlike the Taliban, who have established a monopoly on violence, Syria remains fragmented into ethnic and religious camps, the expert said. Without an inclusive government, the country risks sinking into chaos. Particularly threatening: If the Kurdish SDF is defeated by Turkey and its allies, thousands of IS fighters could escape from custody – a potential nightmare for the region.

There could be an even bigger wave of refugees
As parts of the Syrian diaspora consider returning, a defeat of the Kurds in the north of the country could trigger an even bigger refugee movement. “If the Kurdish areas are overrun, there is a risk of a new, perhaps even larger wave of refugees,” Schmidinger warns.

At the same time, former regime supporters could try to leave the country: “Here you have to look carefully at who is coming and whether there are reasons to refuse asylum, such as involvement in war crimes,” the expert continued.

Expert sees the EU as responsible
While the US and Russia are currently turning their attention to other conflicts, Turkey is increasingly destabilizing the region. What is needed now is an active EU policy towards Syria, the expert warns.

This is the only way to prevent humanitarian disasters and new waves of refugees. “The EU must take action if it does not want new waves of refugees.”

Conclusion: A vulnerable country on the edge
Syria faces an uncertain future. While the fall of the regime offers hope for a new beginning, power struggles, the fragmentation of the country and Islamist groups threaten any chance of stability. A moderate Syria currently remains a distant vision – and without clear international strategies, another decade of suffering and uncertainty looms.