According to experts, the result of the state elections in Salzburg on April 23 can only be estimated to a limited extent from the current perspective. It is clear that the ÖVP will remain first, albeit at a loss, pollsters Peter Hajek and Wolfgang Bachmayer and political adviser Thomas Hofer agree. Experts also agree that the FPÖ will increase significantly and probably displace the SPÖ from second place. It is unclear which coalition variants are possible after the elections.
According to the – few – polls, it is by no means certain that the current “Dirndl coalition” of ÖVP, Greens and NEOS will continue to have a majority in the state parliament after the elections. Peter Hajek – who conducted a study last week with his institute “Public Opinion Strategies” – assessed the situation with extreme caution: due to the relatively large distance to the elections, there is still “a lot of uncertainty” in the current study. Because the security of the declared voters is not as pronounced as about two weeks before the election.
New edition of the “Dirndl Coalition” is “more than uncertain”
“Because of this situation, you can’t really say anything about possible coalition variants, except that the black-blue will certainly succeed,” says Hajek. “Otherwise it’s an incredibly shaky story.” Hofer sees it the same way: According to the survey, a majority of the so-called “Dirndl coalition” would be “beyond insecure”. “That’s really top of the line – that’s certainly dynamic for the election campaign,” said the political expert. OGM boss Bachmayer does not consider a repeat of the current government constellation likely: “In my opinion, the three-party coalition will no longer succeed mathematically.”
ÖVP is likely to lose less than in other federal states
Regarding the expected losses of the ÖVP, Hajek noted that these should not be as massive in percentage terms as those of the provincial governor parties in the previous state elections. Hofer added that it should be taken into account that the Salzburg ÖVP started from a relatively low level – in the 2018 elections, the state party won 37.8 percent.
SPÖ result threatens to collapse en masse
According to the current study, the SPÖ could collapse to 17 percent. According to Hajek, SPÖ top candidate David Egger has “very good” personal values. “The problem of the SPÖ is the KPÖ,” he referred to the KPÖ, which was strong in the survey with 6 percent. Due to the fluctuations, it is not certain whether the communists with their top candidate Kay-Michael Dankl will actually end up in the state parliament, but the KPÖ is hurting the left camp – “especially the SPÖ, but also the Greens,” Hajek said
FPÖ could be the main election day winner
“The main winner will and can only be the FPÖ,” said Bachmayer. And he thinks that a two-party coalition between the ÖVP and the FPÖ – after the black and blue labor agreement in Lower Austria – is quite possible. Thomas Hofer told possible coalitions that the question is whether his ÖVP-SPÖ majority will go out.
Little movement in greens and neos
Little movement is expected in the voting shares of the Greens and NEOS, which stood at 9.3 and 7.3 percent respectively in 2018. “It’s important for both that you don’t lose anything,” says Hofer.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
