Elections in Salzburg: – will everything remain the same – or will everything change?

Because the governor of Salzburg, Wilfried Haslauer, the ‘sir’ of the nine heads of state, must fear an election defeat. The state elections in Salzburg have developed unnoticed for a long time into the most exciting elections of the year. Two questions will predominate on election night: Who will Wilfried Haslauer form a coalition with? Will FPÖ top candidate Marlene Svazek’s election result bring Herbert Kickl closer to the chancellor?

The Blues face a crushing result. The jump over the 20 percent mark for the first time seems certain. But how high above 20 percent will Svazek jump? Salzburg experts even believe that a head-to-head race between the ÖVP and the FPÖ would be possible. The SPÖ drops to third place for the first time.

The gap between the FPÖ and the ÖVP is becoming single digits
“The gap between the ÖVP and the FPÖ is now 19 percent. It will be in single digits. The 37.8 percent for the ÖVP in the last election in 2018 was largely due to the Kurz effect,” says political expert Thomas Hofer: As in Lower Austria, the elections in Salzburg can also be a reckoning with the Corona policy, for example in Flachgau there was a low vaccination rate.

Each electoral victory gives Kickl the impetus to participate in the chancellor’s race in the 2024 National Council elections. The criticism within the party that no one wants to form a coalition with the Kickl-FPÖ has died down. “The taboo was broken in Lower Austria. But Kickl needs a coalition partner for the Chancellery. It’s in a different league,” says Hofer.

Given these prospects, the formation of a coalition in Salzburg will be exciting. Haslauer has distanced himself from the FPÖ. In principle, he is more free in his choice than Johanna Mikl-Leitner. In Lower Austria there is a system of proportional representation. Not in Salzburgerland. Haslauer can also bring small parties into the coalition. In that respect, a way out could be: ÖVP with SPÖ and Greens.