The Jeltzale formation would yield 28 parliamentarians (-3) and the Abertzale coalition 26 (+5). However, if Podemos and Sumar were to participate in a coalition, the distance between PNV and EH Bildu would be reduced to one seat.
He PNV would achieve a narrow victory in the elections for the Basque parliament, which will take place in the spring EH Bildu would grow to two seats according to the macro research EITB focusthe largest performed in Euskadi.
In concrete terms, the Jeltzale formation would bring 28 parliamentarians and a support of 35.8% of the electorate, which would mean a loss of 3 representatives and 3.3 points of votes compared to the last elections in 2020.
The nationalist coalition, for its part, would grow by 5 seats to 26 seats, and by 4.2 points in votes, to 32.1%.
In third place would be the PSE-EEwhich with 12 seats would increase its representation by 2, going from the 13.7% support garnered four years ago to the 14.8% expected at the next appointment in the polls.
If the parties in the electoral space of Can If they did not reach an agreement to participate in a coalition (as is currently the case), the purple formation would overtake Sumar Mugimendua and would receive 4% of the votes and two parliamentarians, while Lander Martínez’s party, on the other hand, would gain one seat and 3.2% of the votes. Four years ago the coalition got six parliamentarians.
Finally, Vox would lose its only representative in the Basque Chamber by receiving 1.6% of the votes, 0.4 points less.
These results would allow PNV and PSE-EE to reissue the current coalition government formula, as both forces would add 40 seats (the absolute majority is 38).
In any case, parliamentary arithmetic would also make other alternatives possible. For example, a possible executive power between PNV and EH Bildu, an option that the Abertzale coalition itself has left open in recent days, would reach 54 parliamentarians.
A government formed or supported by all left-wing parties (EH Bildu, PSE-EE, Podemos and Sumar) would also achieve an absolute majority with 41 representatives.
The EITB Group media will publish tomorrow which government options are preferred by Basque citizens.
What if Sumar and Podemos were to participate in a coalition?
EITB Focus also predicted what the scenario would be if Sumar and Podemos finally agreed to act as a coalition.
In this context, these formations would achieve a greater return on votes due to the peculiarities of the D’Hondt system, because although the support would be identical (7.2% in the coalition or %4 and %3.2 separately), they would almost double. their predicted number of seats, maximum 5.
At the same time, the PNV would gain 27 seats, one fewer than initially planned, and therefore EH Bildu would be one parliamentarian away.
The potential growth of the PSE-EE would also be reduced to eleven representatives.
Data sheet
1,800 people living in the BAC were interviewed to prepare the EITB Focus survey (600 in each historical area).
The fieldwork was conducted from January 24 to 29 through telephone interviews.
For more detailed information or other statistical aspects, you can consult the full PDF of the study.
Source: EITB
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
