Filzmaier analyzes: – How going to church affects the elections in Salzburg

1. Being a political scientist is sometimes a thankless job. Over the past two weeks you have met many know-it-alls, both in Salzburg and far beyond, who supposedly knew the election results for a long time. Since everyone obviously has a 50:50 chance of being right, there will be a significant number of “givers” left tonight who will say, “I knew it right away!”

2. However, the scientific prediction is not spectacular: no one can know in advance! Consider the 2016 presidential elections. Norbert Hofer had a 14 percentage point lead over Alexander Van der Bellen in the first elections, but was narrowly defeated. Predictions about the voting behavior of those whose favorite candidate has already been eliminated – in Salzburg mainly the voters of the ÖVP, FPÖ and the Greens – are uncertain.

3. The effect of election recommendations has rarely been scientifically proven. There were also only indirect statements from the FPÖ that they did not want a communist. Still, it is very questionable whether fans of the “Blue” will vote for the red Auinger instead of the dark red Dankl or not go to the polling station at all.

4. Voter flow analyzes for Salzburg are not publicly available, or – excellently calculated by Viennese statistics professor Erich Neuwirth – they only exist without taking postal votes into account and are therefore inaccurate. Accordingly, Auinger would appeal to a larger share of ÖVP supporters, which would be an advantage for the second election. But perhaps this group would rather make a pilgrimage to church than to the polling station?

5. So the attendance factor determines. Two weeks ago, only 54 percent of Salzburg residents participated. Presumably even fewer people will vote this time and the same people will vote. And the same people won’t stay home. From a purely mathematical point of view, Auinger and Dankl can get the most votes from the non-voter camp. Therefore everything is possible.