What is the current military situation in Ukraine and what effect can Western weapons have?

The Ukraine war is entering a new phase, with NATO countries gradually increasing their arms supplies to Kiev. They have silently crossed the line set by Western governments only at the beginning of the defense arms crisis.

The key remains whether this gradual escalation of arms supplies can prevent Russian retaliation or reverse the tide of fighting as Moscow seeks to wage a more ordinary military war in the Donbas.

Phil Osborne, Phil Osborne, former head of defense intelligence in the United Kingdom, said Ukraine’s question would be “to what extent the West is moving with offensive weapons and what is absolutely essential is to ensure the supply of critical military equipment.” Maintained and grown. ”

The Ukrainian army spent the first six weeks of the war destroying Russian armored vehicles with light infantry with anti-tank wings. Russia’s poor tactics and Ukrainian zeal have forced incomparable attackers to halt attacks on Kiev and Chernigov and Sumy in the north-east of the country.

But Ukraine is now facing confrontation with Russian forces in the east and south, where they have more easily defended their gains and reached more consolidated positions.

Supply of offensive weapons

It became known this week that the Czech Republic had sent dozens of Soviet-designed T-72 tanks, Howitzer-type artillery pieces and BMP-1-class armored personnel carriers. The supply of “offensive weapons” sent by Western politicians has changed considerably.

The minimum compensation of 94 tanks, which, according to Oryx researchers, Ukraine has so far lost in the battle, is not enough. Poland can provide another 100 after reaching an agreement on Tuesday to buy 250 Abrams tanks worth $ 4.75 billion from the US. According to the newspaper ᲓروებაThe UK is exploring the possibility of sending non-lethal weapons to patrol and intelligence in Ukraine.

It is suggested that the next phase of the war, which may still be decisive, will take place in Donbas and next month. The goals of the Russian forces will be to take Mariupol, build a land bridge over Crimea, expand the occupation zone in the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and possibly increase the main fighting force led by the Ukrainians against the invader. .

This is a battle that will take place in April. According to Western intelligence services, Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking for “broadcasting success” on May 9, when a traditional victory parade in memory of the end of World War II is held.

The fight will depend on the material that the West wants to supply. One or two Czech tanks and four Bushmaster armor sent from Australia will not make much difference. “If we had already got what we needed, all these planes, tanks, artillery, anti-missile and anti-ship weapons, we could have saved thousands of lives,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this week.

The United States last Wednesday announced the shipment of $ 100 million worth of new Javelin anti-tank missiles. On Friday, it pledged $ 300 million worth of equipment, including two new sets of weapons designed to help Ukrainian forces attack Russians.

Friday’s lot included “laser-guided missile systems.” According to experts, these are APKWS missiles that are typically mounted on aircraft and possibly aircraft. They can also be used on the ground, where they will help dominate the Russian heavy artillery, which has caused so many casualties in Ukraine.

The same lot also includes 10 Switchblade 600 combat drones with a range of 90 kilometers and a range of 40 minutes. They combine the same anti-tank warheads as Javelin and serve to replace lost Turkish TB2 aircraft, giving the Ukrainian Army more options on the battlefield.

According to Nick Reynolds, a ground war expert Thought Center Russia’s Switchblade aircraft are an “urgent need” for Ukraine, as they will assist in “attacking Russian command units, electronic warfare vehicles, logistics centers, artillery and deep-air defense systems” far from the front line in the Donbas.

There is no doubt that the growing supply will help Ukraine fight the second phase of the Russian attack, but most likely, by the end of April, the picture of a new balance of power will not be clear. There is no guarantee that Ukraine will be able to release the siege of Mariupol, for example, if it does not have more tanks.

Meanwhile, the goals of the West are becoming less clear. Is this about helping Ukraine force the Kremlin into peace talks? If the goal is to inflict a more severe failure that could provoke an unpredictable Russian president?

As a member of the Western government warned on Wednesday, the withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea and the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk would be “largely different” because of “how Russia will protect those interests.”

Translated by Francisco de Zarate.