Autumn is coming – and a new corona wave is also certain. Experts make no secret of this, because the seasonal effect is simply too great. But how big will the wave be and are there threats of new variants that are more contagious and lead to more serious diseases that threaten to rekindle the infection process? Geneticist Ulrich Elling provides an overview of the current situation.
The fact is that when it comes to mutations, a lot can change in a short time and the cards can be reshuffled. But at least things look more or less calm at the moment in variant development, said the researcher, who runs a central part of Austrian variant monitoring with his team.
Multiple Variations on “Watch List”
However, what is also certain is that several variants are observed, such as the new omicron subvariant BA.2.75., also known as “Centaurus”. It has been proven in Austria for a long time, but according to Elling it has no influence on the infection process at the moment. Because it is quite possible that it will gradually become the dominant variant.
Also on the “watchlist”: the BJ.1 variant, another subline of Omicron-BA.2 and the BA.2.75.2 variant, a subtype of Centaurus. What both variants have in common is that they are even more easily transmissible and therefore more contagious. In particular, the “Centaurus” subvariant is now much more common, Elling said in the APA interview.
“Speed of rise not dramatic”
However, the rate at which the shares of the new types are increasing is “not dramatic. If a variant comes more slowly, it can’t make such a big wave backwards,” says the researcher, who also clarifies: “But we’ll get a wave in the fall anyway because the seasonal effect is so big.”
At the moment, the expert considers the chance of an autumn wave, caused by variants that lead to increasingly heavy prices, to be small, provided they continue to develop from the ommicron variant. Here it is more likely that the danger will not make great leaps. However, this should not be taken for granted: nevertheless, there are still plenty of options for negatively “improving” Omikron, says Elling.
Danger threatens due to ‘mutation leap’
And that’s not all: danger threatens from another direction. This refers to highly modified variants of the coronavirus that form in the body of long-term infected people. Affected are people who cannot build immune protection and have been suffering from Covid-19 for more than a year. “This virus ticks like a rabbit all the time, chased by our immune system,” Elling said. And so, in theory, a new, much “fit” descendant could arise from a long-displaced variant, namely the Delta variant, via a “mutation leap”. This could bring a new dynamic.
Without action, “flu will rage through”
The experts are also sure that the flu could re-emerge. “If we now have a winter without major measures, the flu is guaranteed to get through,” says Elling.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
