At 1950 levels, the population would shrink without immigration

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Austria’s population is growing solely through immigration. Without immigration, the population would drop to 1950s levels by 2080, Statistics Austria reported Monday. Austria’s birth rate has also been negative since 2020, while the average age of the domestic population continues to rise. This increases the pressure on domestic pension systems.

In 1951 there were still 6.9 million people living in Austria, this year there are already nine million. “By the mid-2050s, Austria will break the ten million mark and we expect further population growth to reach 10.5 million in 2080,” Austria’s director-general of statistics, Tobias Thomas, said at an online press conference. According to him, the Austrian population is growing exclusively due to immigration, because the birth rate in Austria has been negative since 2020. “Without immigration, Austria would shrink to 6.7 million people by 2080,” says Thomas. This would bring the Austrian population to the level of the 1950s.

Strong growth due to refugees from Ukraine
The fact that Austria is currently growing particularly strongly is, according to the statistician, also due to the war in Ukraine. According to Thomas, the migration of refugees from Ukraine will lead to more immigration this year than in 2015, when many people came to Austria from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. In the first two quarters of this year, a total of 90,075 people immigrated, 60 percent of whom were women. According to the population forecast, on October 1, about 64,500 Ukrainians who have emigrated since the beginning of the year lived in Austria. Due to the war, the proportion of women in the military age group is significantly higher than in others (see chart below).

According to the forecast, the strongest population growth will take place in Vienna. By 2040, Vienna’s population is expected to increase by 14.2 percent and by 2080 by 34.3 percent compared to 2021. In two years’ time, Vienna should break the two million population mark. There should also be strong growth rates in Vorarlberg (plus 10.1 percent in 2040 and plus 22.6 percent in 2080) and Lower Austria (plus 7.3 percent in 2040 and 20.4 percent in 2080). Only for Carinthia is the forecast for a population decline, namely by 0.5 percent in 2040 and by 4.7 percent in 2080. Salzburg will therefore overtake Carinthia in terms of population in the coming years and become the sixth largest state.

We’re getting older
At the same time, the Austrian population is also getting older. The average life expectancy for men is currently 78.9 years. It has increased by 16.5 years since 1951, and by 2080, men are expected to be about ten years older. With an average of 83.7 years, women have aged about 15.9 years since 1951. In 2080 they are expected to be 92 years old. According to the forecast, the proportion of people over 80 in particular will increase sharply in the future. The forecast expects the number of people of this age to increase by 58 percent by 2040 and by a whopping 144 percent by 2080.

Pensions increasingly difficult to finance
Currently, there are about the same number of seniors over 65 as children and young people under 20 in Austria. However, this will change in the future. According to the prognosis, the share of over-65s will rise to 26.6 percent in 2080 and the share up to and including the age of 19 will rise to 20 percent. For every person aged 65 and over, there are currently about three people of working age (20 to 64) in Austria, from 2040 this ratio will change to one in two. According to Thomas, this means “pay-as-you-go systems, especially pensions, care and health, are coming under financial pressure”.

Source: Krone

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