US intelligence service: – Main goal Ukrainian offensive not feasible

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In recent days, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has picked up steam again. Despite recent successful territorial gains, Ukraine will not be able to achieve an important goal this year.

U.S. intelligence assumes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not reach the important southeastern city of Melitopol, the Washington Post said, according to people familiar with the relevant intelligence reports. If this assessment turns out to be correct, it would mean that Kiev will miss its main goal of cutting Russia’s land bridge to Crimea this year.

Russians brake very effectively
The reason for this is probably Russia’s intensive preparations for the counterattack – huge minefields and numerous trenches apparently slow down the Ukrainians very effectively. Now there is clear concern that the West might blame each other for why the offensive, despite massive financial and material support, is not progressing as quickly as many had expected.

The overwhelming success of the advance through the Kharkiv region last autumn raised expectations in particular. Melitopol is vital to Ukraine’s counter-offensive, as it is considered the gateway to Crimea. The city is located at the intersection of two major highways and a railway line, which are essential for supplying Russia.

Ukraine opted for alternative tactics
However, in the first week of fighting, Ukraine suffered heavy casualties against well-prepared Russian defenses, despite some newly acquired Western armaments. While the American, British and Ukrainian scenarios already anticipated this, the Ukrainian army decided to switch to tactics with smaller units advancing on several fronts.

Although progress was made in small steps, there were correspondingly fewer fallen soldiers to mourn. However, it has not yet succeeded in breaking through Russia’s main line of defense.

Foreign Minister: “We don’t care how long it takes”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba acknowledged on Thursday that Ukraine’s counter-offensive is progressing slowly, but said Kiev will not stop fighting until the entire country is recaptured. “We don’t care how long it takes,” he told AFP.

He urged critics of the offensive to “join the Foreign Legion” if they wanted faster results. “It’s easy to say you want to speed things up when you’re not there,” he said.

Will the battle for Bachmut take revenge?
The Ukrainian army has also said the timetable depends on how quickly the armed forces can penetrate the minefields – a difficult process that has strained the army’s demining capabilities in much of the area.

In addition, Ukraine has invested months of soldiers and time in the battle for Bakhmut. Now there is concern that over-deployment may have undermined the effectiveness of the Confederate counter-offensive.

Source: Krone

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