“Taboo break” – German fear of circumstances such as in Austria

SPD and Greens, both clearly cut, sharpen their rhetoric, especially against the CDU boss. Especially the SPD worsens its course. Not in migration policy, but in their Merz delimitation.

Because the union had carried out a motion for migration policy with the support of the AfD, the election campaign has escalated: “Friedrich Merz has gambled and left a stack of broken glass,” the SPD writes on Instagram. Olaf Scholz, performed as a “Chancellor for the Middle”, accuses Merz a “taboo break”.

With this apparent incompatibility of the supposed folk or middle parties, however, concern grows to an insactible political landscape and in the neighboring country you are not afraid to say: “Similar to Austria.”

Fixed coalition negotiations between the ÖVP, Spö and Neos ended there in a government-led government-a scenario that is also feared in Germany.

After the heated exchange of success in the Bundestag, the political center seems to be splitting further. SPD and the Groenen clearly distance themselves from Merz, while despite everything he hopes for coalition negotiations with them. He himself says: “If I keep the keys to you after the choice, you will move.”

But how realistic is that? SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich made it clear: “Merz opened the gateway to hell”, a coalition with him was hardly conceivable. Robert Habeck van de Groenen spoke about an “insurmountable crisis of trust”. The problem: if Merz actually becomes Chancellor, but does not find a partner, there is a risk of hanging for months – or even new elections.

In Vienna meant that the federal president Alexander van der Bellen finally decided to form a government under the FPö. A similar scenario is feared in Germany: if the trade union finds no partners and refusing the SPD, the AfD could benefit from the blockade. The question now is: will the SPD be aware of the responsibility of the state policy? Or does it stay on a confrontation course? What does federal president Frank-Walter Steinmeier do?

If there is no clear majority of the government, Steinmeier could play a crucial role. Already in 2017 he managed to move an initially reserved SPD to a coalition with the Union. Would that also be possible this time? The SPD still stays hard. At least when it comes to the person Merz.

If the trade union does not represent an alternative to Friedrich Merz, Olaf Scholz could try to explore a government option with the green and left. However, a stable majority would not be in sight here either – initially it would be with a minority government that could hardly count on voices of the Union when choosing the Chancellor.

In such a case, the basic law offers a special possibility: after various failed election trips, the federation dester can also determine the Chancellor with a relative majority – only those who receive the most votes. But the last step would be with the federal president: Steinmeier could name the chosen in this way – or decide to resolve the Bundestag and new elections. So the central question is not who will be the next Chancellor – but with whom he can rule.

But one thing is clear to the SPD: she completely refuses whether it could become the cause of a political standstill. In the coming weeks, new surveys will demonstrate whether voters will be further irritated by the constant dispute or whether they will vote for Germany within the meaning of a stable government. Until now, the dispute has had little effect in the current surveys. The CDU easily increases in all trend observations, greens, AfD and SPD losing or winning easily, depending on the institute. It doesn’t make it any easier.