The turquoise-green federal government’s variant management plan, which was leaked on Tuesday, envisions four scenarios – and depending on which scenario hits us, the corresponding consequences should follow. In the “worst case” even lockdowns again, but “short, hard lockdowns should be applied in the future”. It is also intended that anyone over the age of 12 who has previously been spared an infection, will be able to get the fourth suture four to six months after the third vaccination.
The four scenarios described are based on the evolution of the pandemic – both globally and domestically:
- Ideal/”Best Case”: The pandemic is coming to an end and those infected have only mild symptoms, similar to a cold. Even when new variants appear, there isn’t a huge spike in new infections other than seasonal outbreaks. The current vaccines work, restrictions in economic and social life are not necessary.
- Favorable case: The pandemic is still ongoing, but weakened in the longer term by increasing global immunity. However, new variants can still cause waves, heavy courses are limited to vulnerable groups. Partial restrictions such as FFP2 mask requirement in nursing homes or hospitals are necessary and could also be reintroduced into public transport. To ensure vaccination protection, regular boosters are necessary.
- Unfavorable case: The pandemic continues, the virus continues to mutate. Due to the new variants, there are always unpredictable outbreaks all over the world. The new mutations also show resistance to common corona drugs. During the waves of infection, there are profound disruptions to social life. The vaccination must be adjusted annually. However, severe course and increased mortality are still concentrated in particularly vulnerable groups. In this scenario, all Access restrictions via 3G or 2G meant. The mask requirement in closed spaces and also: Home office for everyone, where this is possible, you will find here. Where a home office is not possible, permanent teams must be formed and special protective measures put in place. A curfew may also apply during this phase, which in turn has consequences for nighttime gastronomy. Major events and gatherings would be banned again.
- Very unfavorable/worst case: The corona pandemic is intensifying, new variants are emerging that are not only more contagious but also more dangerous than the previous ones. The number of hospitals is increasing enormously, new waves are causing an increase in serious diseases. Especially people with insufficient immunity are affected here. Lockdowns, travel restrictions and other restrictions in social and economic life dominate this phase. Testing is mandatory for people in critical infrastructure and in a lockdown an “early, short but tight lockdown – if unavoidable – is preferred”.
“Plausible assessment from today’s perspective”
The draft emphasizes that these scenarios are “plausible assessments from today’s perspective, the probability of which cannot be quantified or determined by individual parameters. It is also possible that the future actual evolution of the pandemic will have a different course or that there will be a transition is from one scenario to another.” So far good.
Who is tested, when and how, also depends on the relevant scenario. While ideally only symptoms should be tested, from scenario 2 (favorable cases) suspected cases and contacts will be tested, and there should also be a free offer of five PCR tests and five antigen tests per month. In scenarios 3 and 4, an unspecified “extension of institution-specific testing capabilities” is planned.
No more reporting obligation in “ideal case”
Explosive: In scenario 1, Covid-19 would no longer be a notifiable disease, nor would there be a separation obligation or traffic restrictions for people who tested positive. However, sick people are on sick leave, as is the case with all other illnesses. Scenario 2 is only based on traffic restrictions, only from scenario 3 onwards do the infected have to isolate themselves again.
Fourth stitch for anyone aged 12 and over
They want to continue the free vaccination program regardless of the respective development. Vaccination against flu will take place nationwide again from the autumn of 2023, but the prescription fee will then have to be paid. Child vaccinations remain free. From scenario 2 onwards, there should be more calls for vaccination. In general, the intention is to offer all people over the age of 12 who have not yet had a corona infection the fourth suture. Ensuring sufficient vaccine, but also the supply of corona medicines, must continue to be done centrally.
Source: Krone
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