The military economist Marcus Keupp works at the top university ETH Zurich and trains Swiss officers there. Now he is causing a stir with an unusual method: the expert wants to be able to calculate the end of the war in Ukraine. The forecast date is in the near future. The calculation sounds plausible.
It’s day 386 in Russia’s ruthless war of aggression (in the video above footage of the hotly contested city of Bakhmut), which seems to have no end. But expert Keupp knows for sure: the Russians are gradually running out of equipment and people, while a Ukrainian counter-offensive with Western tanks is expected in mid-April. Preparations are underway, as he described in an interview with the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung”.
How Ukraine could win
His prognosis: Ukraine will advance from Zaporizhia through Melitopol to the Black Sea coast, splitting the front in two. For example, it is possible to surround the Russian formations between Melitopol and Nowa Kakhovka and to place Himar missile systems on the coast. Then Russia’s defeat will become clear, says Keupp.
Can mathematics predict the course of a war?
The exciting thing about the military economist’s theory is that it is based on calculations. According to this data, up to 600 Russian soldiers die every day. In addition, the Russians lose five tanks and six armored cars every day. Keupp obtained the figures from the Swedish defense agency FOI and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) from London. The institutes assume that there are 2,900 operational Russian main battle tanks.
This number is compared to the loss rate – that is 1845 tanks and therefore an average of five per day of war. Ergo: The reserve of 1055 pieces is sufficient for up to 211 days of war. And that doesn’t even include a central muffler. Namely, that Russia is resorting to increasingly older tanks, while Ukraine is being equipped with modern Western systems and is experiencing a so-called technology boost.
Due to the large amount of data (satellite images, images of the population, data from experts, social networks), the figures are relatively easy to check. It is the best documented war in human history.
Is nuclear war Russia’s last resort?
Will Moscow, cornered and under pressure, still decide to press the red button? The military economist reacts calmly to these fears. He is much more certain that Russia is only using the nuclear threats to exert psychological pressure, which he says works especially in Germany. According to the expert, however, Putin cannot have any real interest in a nuclear confrontation, because, as is well known, there are only losers.
I am Wallace Jones, an experienced journalist. I specialize in writing for the world section of Today Times Live. With over a decade of experience, I have developed an eye for detail when it comes to reporting on local and global stories. My passion lies in uncovering the truth through my investigative skills and creating thought-provoking content that resonates with readers worldwide.