The number of deaths due to antibiotic resistance is increasing

“To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to reduce the risk of serious infections, through vaccines, new medicines, improved health care, better access to existing antibiotics, and guidance on how to use them most effectively,” warned study author Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

Since the population group of people aged 64 and over will grow the most in the coming years, resistance-related deaths could also increase globally in 2050 according to the model: from 1.14 million (2021) to 1.91 million (2050) per year. According to the model calculation, the number of deaths in which multi-resistant pathogens play a role could increase from 4.71 million to 8.22 million.

The crisis is hitting the US and Canada hard
The antibiotic crisis is not just affecting low- and middle-income countries. The US and Canada were among the five regions of the world where the number of deaths from resistance increased the most between 1990 and 2021. The other regions are tropical Latin America, West Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

By 2050, the highest rates of increase are expected in South Asia (including India), Latin America and the Caribbean. “These data should stimulate investment and targeted action to address the growing challenge of antimicrobial resistance across all regions,” said Samuel Kariuki of the Kenya Medical Research Institute, who was not involved in the study.

Any application could lead to the spread of resistant bacteria, because they would then have a survival advantage. Being able to predict future developments is crucial for life-saving countermeasures, says Mohsen Naghavi of the University of Washington, one of the first authors of the study.

The research team led by Christopher Murray from the University of Washington in Seattle used 520 million datasets to represent the development of antibiotic resistance between 1990 and 2021 in a computer model. Based on this, a forecast for the coming years was made, which is presented in the journal “The Lancet”.

There are fears of a large number of unreported cases
It’s not easy to determine the extent of the resistance problem: for example, when complications arise during cancer treatment due to multi-resistant pathogens, the cause of death of a patient is still usually attributed to cancer. The study authors used hospital discharge data, cause of death data, drug resistance profiles, antibiotic use surveys and numerous other sources to assess the extent of resistance and develop the global model.

However, the researchers’ model also showed a potential positive development: better treatment of serious infections and increased access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.

From 1990 to 2021, more than one million people died each year worldwide due to antimicrobial resistance. The total increased slightly, from 1.06 million in 1990 to 1.14 million in 2021. Taking into account population growth, the death rate per 100,000 people decreased from 19.8 (1990) to 14.5 (2021).

Resistance increases with age
However, the development differs greatly by age group: While the number of deaths due to resistance in children under the age of five fell by 50 percent, the number among people aged 70 or older increased by 80 percent.

Regarding young children, the researchers write: “A large part of this reduction is due to a decrease in drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae and pathogens that are usually spread via fecal-oral transmission.” Vaccination campaigns and improved hygienic conditions have contributed in particular to this. The researchers attribute the increase in the number of cases in the elderly to the often lower effectiveness or intolerance of vaccines and medications in the elderly, as well as to more underlying diseases.