Model calculation – After 1 year: Vaccination prevented 20 million deaths


Even in the first year, when production of the Covid-19 vaccine had just started, vaccination reduced the number of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infections worldwide by about 20 million. This was the result of a model calculation by British experts. The study is based on data from 185 countries around the world.

The scientists from Imperial College London analyzed the period between December 8, 2020 – the first day of availability of a Covid-19 vaccine – and December 8, 2021.

More than 540 million infections so far
It is a model calculation that differs from the officially reported deaths from the pandemic. More than 540 million infections and 6.3 million deaths have been reported so far. However, this probably only reflects some of the illnesses and deaths that have occurred worldwide, because in many countries around the world the health system is so weak that there is no meaningful epidemiological reporting system.

Here are the calculations by Oliver Watson and his co-authors: In the first year of Covid-19 vaccines being available, vaccination prevented 19.8 million of the total 31.4 million deaths caused by the pandemic.

More deaths could have been prevented
In the wealthy states and in the countries with an average gross national product, 12.2 million people were saved by the Covid-19 vaccination alone. Nearly 600,000 more deaths could have been prevented if the World Health Organization (WHO) goal of protecting at least 40 percent of the world’s population through immunization by the end of 2021 had been met.

The potential death toll and also the protective effect have been calculated using both the officially reported figures of the individual countries about the pandemic and by estimating the excess mortality in countries without an associated reporting system. According to official statistics, there were approximately 3.65 million Covid-19 deaths between December 8, 2020 and December 8, 2021. That should in any case only be part of the real figures.

The scientists also calculated the protective effect based on the official Covid 19 statistics. According to this, there would have been 18.1 deaths worldwide in the considered annual interval without the vaccinations. Of these, 14.4 million deaths were prevented with vaccine availability, a 79 percent drop. “However, these numbers do not take into account the poor reporting of deaths from Covid-19, as is the case in many states with low gross national product,” wrote The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

World lags behind WHO targets
“Of the estimated 20 million deaths that could have been prevented with vaccination in the first year, about 7.5 million were due to vaccination under the international COVAX program (for poorer countries; ed.) Watson reports. If the WHO targets had been met, at least 20 percent of deaths in these countries could have been prevented. Currently, about 66 percent of the world’s population has received at least one dose of the Covid 19 vaccine. Despite vaccine development at a record pace and more than 13 billion vaccine doses now produced, the world is lagging behind the WHO’s global vaccination targets.

Source: Krone


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